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Orbo Demonstration Gentlepersons Wager

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Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:12 am PostPost subject: Orbo Demonstration Gentlepersons Wager
mrsean2k
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This is an independent thread to keep track of the gentlepersons wager made on the Steorn public forum.

I'm keeping a note / tracking here as it's a bit more neutral, and I have slightly higher hopes that any mischief will be zapped by moderators (no offence to Magnatrix on the other forum!)

The Wager

Following the link above will provide a history, but briefly:


    The wager is initialliy between maryyugo and mrsean2k (but generously contributed to by other parties)

    As a thank you for maryyugos sporting nature in engaging, mrsean2k has donated 50 to cancer research (proof and URL for donations to follow - it has to be approved for public consumption apparently)

    ETA: Url for donations is https://www.giveincelebration.org/donatenow/CelebrationPage.asp?id=3045

    if no attempt to demonstrate, as described below, takes place before 31/12/09, mrsean2k donates another 50.

    If Steorn or a party following Steorns methods attempt to demonstrate a "self-runner" before 31/12/09, maryyugo donates 25 or so to the same charity.

    For the 25 to be due, the attempt has to be physical, e.g. open the public and not just a posted video, and a continuous run has to be sustained for 6+ hours

    If this happens, maryyugo has agreed to donate to the same charity.

    If the demonstration is debunked within 1 month, mrsean2k donates another 50 and will mutely submit to a decent burst of "I told you so" from maryyugo.

    If the demonstration is debunked within 6 months, mrsean2k instead donates another 25 (but the public flogging stands)

    If the demonstration "stands up" for more than 6 months, that's it.


Side Bets
A couple of other posters on the Steorn public forum have generously flagged their intentions to donate to a charity of their choice if I "win", in a one-way bet.

These are:


    Big Oil Rep 50 or so to Oxfam

    Wintersun 50 to charity of choice

    Ping1400 50EUR if a decent demo takes place before 31/13/09, 100EUR if the demo is compelling (www.msf.org)



As a rough guide, I'd suggest that any additional one-way bets made in thi s way should sting enough to add some interest to the procedings, but not so much that it hurts for long. About the price of a good night on the lash should cover it,

If anyone is interested in chipping in, let me know and I'll add them here for reminders should the amount fall due before 31/12/09. Also let me know if I've misrepresented anyone in intention or amount, mistakes happen.

Disclaimer
This is not endorsed in any way by Steorn, and at the moment (04/02/09) I don't have any insider knowledge concerning the intention or timing for possible public demos. I think that covers it.

EEStor Addendum
As a result of discussions on the Steorn forum, a wager between joshs and mrsean2k for $50 of thereabouts that EEStor will demonstrate a "battery" of the agreed capacity before the end of 2009.

Thanks to joshs and details in separate post below for posterity.

The Barclays Appendix
Another side-bet in the Steorn forum at:

http://www.steorn.com/forum/comments.php?DiscussionID=61928&page=2#Item_39

"Ok, 100 Euro in a 1:5 bet.
I donate 500 Euro when there is a generally accepted proof for OU on 31 July 2010.
You will donate 100 Euro when there isn't. Donation will go to cancer research UK.
You can add this bet to the Fizzx 'Orbo Demonstration Gentlepersons Wager' thread."

Thanks to @Barclays.

One condition I'd like to add; 500euro isn't an insignificant amount of money (at the moment), so I'd like to propose that in the event Barclays loses the wager, the 500 is paid in at a rate of 100 per month.


Last edited by mrsean2k on Sun Aug 23, 2009 8:39 am; edited 3 times in total
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Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:14 pm PostPost subject:
Ping1400
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My favorite NGO is "Medicins sans frontier"
(http://www.msf.org/)

Ping will donate Euro 50:
If Steorn tries another public demonstration before 31-12-2009

Ping will donate Euro 100:
If Steorn tries another public demonstration before 31-12-2009 that seems to work (like running for 10 days without obvious external power supply)

... much more scenarios come to mind ... enough for now


Last edited by Ping1400 on Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:23 pm PostPost subject:
Wintersun
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Hi

Amount will be 50. The new Steorn front page had me reaching for the cheque book, but I resisted - I think my money's still safe.
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Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:39 pm PostPost subject:
Ping1400
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Barclays is a good friend of mine. He is good for his money, and won't need a paying schedule for his 500 Euro. And this is still only a symbolic amount compared to the chances of losing the bet.


Keeping another promise: a demo was performed before year-end.
http://yfrog.com/18msf50eurofromping1400j

Translation: ping paid 50 Euro to Medicins sans Frontieres.


Last edited by Ping1400 on Thu May 27, 2010 8:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Wed Feb 04, 2009 6:52 pm PostPost subject: A Hedy Wager
HedyL
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The wagers are going higher and higher.
Now that Orbo's come back into style-la!
I have my own rarity
To offer to charity--
My outfit from Samson and Delilah!
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Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:24 am PostPost subject:
mrsean2k
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EEStor Addendum

Posted by joshs and captured here from the original thread on the Steorn forum for posterity:

====================================

Real money is fine.

You may have set the bar too high. The criteria is verifiable energy storage density that meets their claims. The patent claims 2500MJ/m^3 which isn't quite 2X the high end of Li ion density at 1300MJ/m^3. I'll make it easier and accept verification of 1300MJ/m^3 density or higher in a sample that demonstrates storage of at least 20J.

====================================

Note that joshs sportingly lowered my proposal from 3X to 2X. Ta.
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Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:32 pm PostPost subject:
Harvey
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From MIT 18.02 Lec 28
Energy in a magnetic field:
`U_B = (1/2μ_0)B^2 = (1/2μ_0)E^2 / C^2 = (1/2)ε_0E^2`
in Joules per `(Meter)^3` (cubic meter)

The symmetry between magnetic and electric are obvious.
And there is a Total Energy Density `U_(Total)` of both fields combined in the same space, remove the (1/2)
So `U_(Total) = ε_0E^2` : replacing one of the E's with B * C gives; `ε_0EBC`

EM wave energy in volume C cubic meters (light travels at C) `cm^2`, will move through one square meter in one second.
Therefore the energy that comes out per square meter per second is `U_(Total) * C = ε_0EBC^2` and this equals `(EB)/μ_0` because `C^2 = 1/ε_0 = μ_0`
This energy is Joules per second per (square?) meter `J/m^2sec`. This is the Poynting Vector and is written as `S = (E x B) / μ_0 = W/m^2`
Time averaged: `S_[avg] = (1/2)*((E_0B_0)/μ_0)` and in terms of E only `(1/2) * (e_o^2 / μ_0 * C)`

So, the question arises - can we use a magnetic bubble as an energy storage and if so, how much energy can we store in one cubic meter?

Cool
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Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:20 am PostPost subject:
mrsean2k
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As quick update.

As Christmas approaches, and as I'd hate to miss anything, I'm paying the maryyugo and joshs bets now.

This isn't acceptance of a "loss", but it sidesteps anything being overlooked in the excitement (or becoming due in the non-excitement).

I've added 50 for the initial part of the maryyugo bet (with the potential for more if it's a *juicy* fraud) and 30 for the joshs bet (about $50 at todays exchange rate).

I'll revisit the Barclays Appendix closer to the time.
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Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:25 pm PostPost subject:
maryyugo
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Thanks. It'll be one of the few benefits, the others all also being forfeited bets, which Steorn bequests on charity, Africa, or the poor.
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