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Calimero company budget analysis

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Sun May 13, 2007 5:14 pm PostPost subject: Calimero company budget analysis
Ping1400
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To find out if the financial and investment information of Steorn are justifiable for the things they are doing, I made up the Calimero sister company and calculated a very rough budget scenario based on few assumptions.

It looks like the figures of Steorn do fit the company they claim to be. It explains the urgent need for new investment in Feb/March 2007 (was also a silent period of Steorn in the media) and shows that the theory of the Steorn management 'milking' the company is not a realistic one. With the current burn-rate they can continue until the second half of 2009. But few questions remain: what did those 15 R&D people do all the time? And why so many individual Irish private investors (gives mixed feelings)?

As a skeptic I slowly tend to think that the guys at Steorn at least initially did believe they found an OU technology. Maybe they just cannot stop the train anymore, but it does indeed look like they still believe. At the same time I think they have major problems turning the proclaimed OU phenomena into something that produces useful energy. As we all know, that just won't happen. And it is frustrating them (and explains the needed continuation of the validation process into 2008). Very high probability that the July demo will be not what we expect from it (scam options excluded).


Calimero company budget
------------------------------------------

Assumptions:

Personal:
- 2 FTE management
- 15 FTE own personal
- 5 FTE hired R&D

Outsourced:
- Marketing
- Accountancy
- Legal

Dublin is an expensive region.


Management & Marketing
- Management fee (2x) [400k]
- Marketing
-- Consult [50k]
-- Website [100k]
-- Adverts&Media [150k]
-- Community [50k]
TOTAL [750k] (Euro/Year)

Admin costs
- Building [100k]
- Acountant [50k]
- Legal support [50k]
- Services [50k]
- Expenses (travel&dine) [200k]
- Personal [300k]
-- Finance 1FTE
-- Secretary 1FTE
-- HR&Ops&IT 2FTE
-- Sales support 1FTE
TOTAL [750k] (Euro/Year)

R&D
- Personel Internal 10FTE [700k]
- Personal External 5FTE [700k]
- Material costs
-- Equipement [100k]
-- IT&licenses [100k]
- Patents [100k]
TOTAL [1700k] (Euro/Year)

TOTAL Calimero Company: 3200k (Euro/Year)

------------------------------------------

Conclusions:

1) High overhead (30%).

2) High cost ratio: over 150k/FTE (about 50% more than average consultancy companies). It should be possible to do the same for just over 2MEuro.

3) New investment was very much needed in march 2007, as the first 6 MEuro was finished.
Year Cash Cum.
2004 0800k 0800k - first 6M tranche
2005 1800k 2600k
2006 3000k 5600k
2007 3200k 8800k - second 8M tranche
2008 3200k 12000k
2009 2000k 14000k (until September)

Maybe the share and money transfer of the second tranche took place in Feb/March 2007, but the commitment of the investors in the form of contractual side-letters that don't show in the fiscal balance could be from much earlier. I've seen this with financial constructions before.

4) The management could try to 'milk' the company by having a part of the costs and the hired R&D personal being paid for to a second company owned by the management. In this budget it could be done for a max of 1 MEuro per year to stay under the radar. But the services still need to be delivered and they could keep a margin of 50% at most. That is only 500k per year (250k per person). When comparing that with the management fee the 'milking' theory becomes very improbable.

5) The investors are a relatively large and mixed group of wealthy Irish people. There is no big company behind (like Microsoft), reducing the chances of a viral campaign. But it gives the feeling of an 'inside job', which could be a good or a bad sign.

6) What are all these R&D guys doing? A group of 15 people on R&D is a lot. The test-rigs and toys we have seen cannot explain this.
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Sun May 13, 2007 9:00 pm PostPost subject:
jwk
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Hi, does this relate to the synopsis of companies that 15 India Street posted on steorn tracker ?

If so, could you create a thread here with all of your findings, guess work etc in order ?

It could make for a usefull resource.

Thanks.
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Mon May 14, 2007 5:45 pm PostPost subject:
Ping1400
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@jwk
I reposted it in the 'Skeptic theories' thread.
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